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undergraduate thesis
Primjena Dixon -Coles modela u predviđanju ishoda nogometnih utakmica
2024. urn:nbn:hr:126:669458
Kampić, Karlo
Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek
School of Applied Mathematics and Informatics

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Kampić, K. (2024). Primjena Dixon -Coles modela u predviđanju ishoda nogometnih utakmica (Undergraduate thesis). Osijek: Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, School of Applied Mathematics and Informatics. Retrieved from https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:126:669458

Kampić, Karlo. "Primjena Dixon -Coles modela u predviđanju ishoda nogometnih utakmica." Undergraduate thesis, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, School of Applied Mathematics and Informatics, 2024. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:126:669458

Kampić, Karlo. "Primjena Dixon -Coles modela u predviđanju ishoda nogometnih utakmica." Undergraduate thesis, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, School of Applied Mathematics and Informatics, 2024. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:126:669458

Kampić, K. (2024). 'Primjena Dixon -Coles modela u predviđanju ishoda nogometnih utakmica', Undergraduate thesis, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, School of Applied Mathematics and Informatics, accessed 10 November 2024, https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:126:669458

Kampić K. Primjena Dixon -Coles modela u predviđanju ishoda nogometnih utakmica [Undergraduate thesis]. Osijek: Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, School of Applied Mathematics and Informatics; 2024 [cited 2024 November 10] Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:126:669458

K. Kampić, "Primjena Dixon -Coles modela u predviđanju ishoda nogometnih utakmica", Undergraduate thesis, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, School of Applied Mathematics and Informatics, Osijek, 2024. Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:126:669458

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TitlePrimjena Dixon -Coles modela u predviđanju ishoda nogometnih utakmica
Title (english)Application of the Dixon-Coles Model in Predicting Football Match Autcomes
AuthorKarlo Kampić
MentorDanijel Grahovac (mentor)
GranterJosip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek
School of Applied Mathematics and Informatics
Osijek
Defense date and country2024-09-30, Croatia
Scientific / art field,
discipline and subdiscipline		NATURAL SCIENCES
Mathematics
Probability Theory and Statistics
Abstract
Ovaj rad analizira primjenu Dixon-Coles modela za predviđanje rezultata nogometnih utakmica, s posebnim fokusom na sezonu 2023. Engleske Premier lige. Dixon-Coles model uvodi korekcije u tradicionalni Poissonov regresijski model kako bi uzeo u obzir interakcije između momčadi i česte niske rezultate, što tradicionalni modeli ne pokrivaju dovoljno dobro. U radu se prikupljeni podaci analiziraju i modeliraju koristeći metodu procjene maksimalne vjerojatnosti, dok se učinkovitost modela vrednuje pomoću metrika kao što su Brier Score i Log Loss. Rezultati pokazuju da Dixon-Coles model pruža preciznija predviđanja u usporedbi s jednostavnijim modelima, posebno u utakmicama s malim brojem golova. Ova prednost modela ima praktičnu primjenu u sportskom klađenju i nogometnoj analitici, gdje točnost predviđanja može značajno doprinijeti donošenju strateških odluka.
Abstract (english)
This paper analyzes the application of the Dixon-Coles model for predicting football match outcomes, with a particular focus on the 2023 English Premier League season. The Dixon-Coles model introduces adjustments to the traditional Poisson regression model to account for team interactions and the frequent occurrence of low-scoring matches, which are often inadequately addressed by conventional models. The collected data is analyzed and modeled using the maximum likelihood estimation method, while the model’s effectiveness is evaluated using metrics such as the Brier Score and Log Loss. The results demonstrate that the Dixon-Coles model provides more accurate predictions compared to simpler models, especially in matches with a low number of goals. This advantage makes the model practically applicable in sports betting and football analytics, where prediction accuracy can significantly contribute to strategic decision-making.
Keywords
Keywords (english)
Languagecroatian
URN:NBNurn:nbn:hr:126:669458
Study programmeTitle: Bachelor of Mathematics and Computer Science
Study programme type: university
Study level: undergraduate
Academic / professional title: sveučilišni/a prvostupnik/prvostupnica (baccalaureus/baccalaurea) matematike i računarstva (sveučilišni/a prvostupnik/prvostupnica (baccalaureus/baccalaurea) matematike i računarstva)
Type of resourceText
File originBorn digital
Access conditionsOpen access
Terms of useLicence In copyright icon
Created on2024-10-15 09:21:09